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China's carbon emissions are not small for many reasons such as industrial structure, energy consumption structure, etc. First, this paper, from the perspective of industrial structure, applies cointegration test to analyze the factors of China's long-term growth in carbon emissions. Then we carry out an empirical analysis of China's carbon emissions and the three industries from 1987 to 2008 based on VAR model. The results show that there exists a long-term equilibrium relationship and short-term correction mechanism between the three industries and carbon emissions. China's rapid development of three industries promotes of increased carbon emissions, where service industry is the key factor. We recommend that the characteristics of industrial stages of development should be considered when the industrial emission reduction policy is formulated. © 2011 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg.
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