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The destructive forces of an earthquake are known to be very large. In addition, it is difficult to predict exactly when and how an earthquake will occur. Thus, earthquakes will, to a great extent, endanger people's lives and result in tremendous economic losses to society when they occur. In recent years, earthquakes have taken place worldwide, causing great damage to people's lives and property. As a result, all levels of government across the world pay particular attention to earthquake emergency planning and incorporate emergency planning into their comprehensive transportation plans. Shelters, as the destination of evacuees, play an important role in earthquake emergency evacuation plans. The objective of this paper is to define principles of planning and layout for emergency evaluation shelters and to explore an approach for choosing suitable shelters for earthquake emergency evacuation. Likelihood-of-candidate, a comprehensive indicator for shelter selection, is introduced in this study as a tool to rank shelters to be chosen. Three factors are outlined as influencing the ranking of likelihood-of-candidate of a shelter: 1) capacity of facility, 2) quality of facility, and 3) accessibility. The likelihood-of-candidate model is built up to quantitatively determine the relative status of shelters to be chosen. The model is validated and calibrated using data from Beijing, China. © 2011 ASCE.
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