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作者:

Yang, Jinkui (Yang, Jinkui.) | Zhang, Liguo (Zhang, Liguo.) (学者:张利国) | Chen, Yangzhou (Chen, Yangzhou.) (学者:陈阳舟)

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EI Scopus

摘要:

Short-term traffic flow forecasting plays a significant role in the Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITS). Previous research shows that the successful predictability decreases sharply in multiple-steps-ahead prediction due to the fact that freeway traffic state changes abruptly under heterogeneous traffic conditions. This paper proposes a pattern-based forecasting framework that is consistent with the evolution of traffic flow and has the ability to exploit past traffic pattern information in order to enhance predictability. For the purpose of prediction, several historical traffic patterns are developed for each traffic state according to the classified historical traffic data. The future value of traffic flow can be quickly predicted with the real-time traffic data by means of pattern matching techniques to identify the current traffic pattern. Finally, a comparative study on a section of the Third-Loop Freeway, LIULIQIAO, Beijing, indicates that pattern-based forecasting that considers traffic state is more accurate when compared to classical ARIMA models, which only operate under the time series consideration. © 2010 ASCE.

关键词:

Forecasting Highway traffic control Intelligent systems Intelligent vehicle highway systems Pattern matching Street traffic control

作者机构:

  • [ 1 ] [Yang, Jinkui]School of Electronic Information and Control Engineering, Beijing University of Technology, Beijing, 100124, China
  • [ 2 ] [Zhang, Liguo]School of Electronic Information and Control Engineering, Beijing University of Technology, Beijing, 100124, China
  • [ 3 ] [Chen, Yangzhou]School of Electronic Information and Control Engineering, Beijing University of Technology, Beijing, 100124, China

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年份: 2010

卷: 382

页码: 2057-2064

语种: 英文

被引次数:

WoS核心集被引频次: 0

SCOPUS被引频次: 1

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