The　success　of　a　new　technology　commercialization　depends　on　its　technical　characteristic　and　business　environment.　In　this　paper,　by　analyzing　the　environmental　factors　which　decide　the　success　of　the　new　technology　commercialization,　it　builds　the　successful　commercialization　of　new　technology　evaluation　system　based　on　the　environment　and　uses　quantitative　analysis　on　various　factors　by　analytic　hierarchy　process,　so　as　to　provide　evidence　for　judgment　of　possibility　of　new　technology　commercialization　success.