the　new　technical　commercial　prospective　analysis　contains　the　commercial　potential　of　new　technology　and　successful　factors　of　new　technology　with　commercial　potential.　The　conceptual　framework　for　analyzing　the　commercial　potential　of　new　technology　has　been　not　gotten　though　people　work　on　the　questions　for　a　long　time.　This　paper　put　forward　a　new　conceptual　framework　for　analyzing　the　commercial　potential　of　new　technology　based　on　patent　analysis　in　evaluating　stage　of　technology　development,　the　quality　of　technology,　the　technology　opportunities　and　the　key　problems　being　worked　upon　in　technology　development.　©　2008　IEEE.