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作者:

Zhao, L. (Zhao, L..) | Mbachu, J. (Mbachu, J..) | Zhang, H. (Zhang, H..)

收录:

Scopus

摘要:

Construction cost index has been widely used to prepare cost estimates, budgets, and bids for construction projects. It can also be regarded as an indicator of cost level, which makes it valuable to public authorities for understanding the conditions in the construction industry. Accurate forecasting of future construction cost index is essential for construction industry at both micro- and macro-level. To improve the accuracy of the cost forecasting, time series modeling techniques are adopted in this study. The performance of the exponential smoothing models and seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models for forecasting the building cost of five categories of residential building (one-story house, two-story house, town house, apartment, and retirement village building) in New Zealand is compared. Exponential smoothing models can produce more accurate forecasts for cost series of the one-story house and two-story house in New Zealand, while seasonal ARIMA models outperform exponential smoothing models across the cost series for town house, apartment, and retirement village building. This study contributes toward the development of the current state of knowledge in the area of cost index forecasting for New Zealand and provides insights that should be valuable from the practitioner perspectives. © The Author(s) 2019.

关键词:

ARIMA model; exponential smoothing model; forecasting performance; New Zealand; Residential building costs

作者机构:

  • [ 1 ] [Zhao, L.]College of Architecture and Civil Engineering, Beijing University of Technology, Beijing, China
  • [ 2 ] [Mbachu, J.]Faculty of Society & Design, Bond University, Gold Coast, QLD, Australia
  • [ 3 ] [Zhang, H.]College of Architecture and Civil Engineering, Beijing University of Technology, Beijing, China

通讯作者信息:

  • [Zhao, L.]College of Architecture and Civil Engineering, Beijing University of TechnologyChina

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来源 :

International Journal of Engineering Business Management

ISSN: 1847-9790

年份: 2019

卷: 11

被引次数:

WoS核心集被引频次: 0

SCOPUS被引频次: 3

ESI高被引论文在榜: 0 展开所有

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