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In the last decade, the high-speed rail (HSR) has undergone rapid development and is playing a more and more important role in the transportation system of China. However, the currently adopted maintenance policy of HSR is still mainly usage-based preventive maintenance, which is quite conservative and incurs tremendous annual maintenance costs. Thus, it is necessary to conduct predictive maintenance so as to save maintenance cost as well as ensure the reliability of HSR, which requires for predicting the remaining useful life (RUL) as an essential step. As sensor technology and the 5th generation wireless technology advance, condition monitoring has been convenient and cost efficient. Based on the collected condition information data, the RUL prediction becomes possible. In this research, we develop an Elman artificial neural network for the purpose of predicting the RUL of HSR bearings, based on the condition monitoring data. To fulfill this purpose, we firstly propose the concepts of current and cumulative state characteristics for analyzing the state monitoring data to extract and filter features that can reflect the current state of the bearings. Then, we build the Elman artificial neural network, evaluate the role cumulative state characteristics play in the model and obtain the weights and thresholds with optimal prediction performance. This way, the network structure and the neuron number of hidden layers are optimized. Experimentation based on the data set of the 2012 IEEE PHM Data Challenge demonstrates the goodness of the proposed approach. © Springer Nature Singapore Pte Ltd 2019.
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