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作者:

Mu, Xian-Zhong (Mu, Xian-Zhong.) (学者:穆献中) | Li, Guo-Hao (Li, Guo-Hao.) | Hu, Guang-Wen (Hu, Guang-Wen.)

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Scopus SCIE CSCD

摘要:

Based on the study of the relationship between structure and feedback of China's natural gas demand system, this paper establishes a system dynamics model. In order to simulate the total demand and consumption structure of natural gas in China, we set up seven scenarios by changing some of the parameters of the model. The results showed that the total demand of natural gas would increase steadily year by year and reach in the range from 3600 to 4500 billion cubic meters in 2035. Furthermore, in terms of consumption structure, urban gas consumption would still be the largest term, followed by the gas consumption as industrial fuel, gas power generation and natural gas chemical industry. In addition, compared with the population growth, economic development still plays a dominant role in the natural gas demand growth, the impact of urbanization on urban gas consumption is significant, and the promotion of natural gas utilization technology can effectively reduce the total consumption of natural gas.

关键词:

Natural gas demand system Scenario prediction System dynamics Consumption structure

作者机构:

  • [ 1 ] [Mu, Xian-Zhong]Beijing Univ Technol, Inst Recycling Econ, Beijing 100124, Peoples R China
  • [ 2 ] [Li, Guo-Hao]Beijing Univ Technol, Inst Recycling Econ, Beijing 100124, Peoples R China
  • [ 3 ] [Hu, Guang-Wen]Beijing Univ Technol, Inst Recycling Econ, Beijing 100124, Peoples R China

通讯作者信息:

  • [Hu, Guang-Wen]Beijing Univ Technol, Inst Recycling Econ, Beijing 100124, Peoples R China

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来源 :

PETROLEUM SCIENCE

ISSN: 1672-5107

年份: 2018

期: 4

卷: 15

页码: 912-924

5 . 6 0 0

JCR@2022

ESI学科: GEOSCIENCES;

ESI高被引阀值:139

JCR分区:3

被引次数:

WoS核心集被引频次: 11

SCOPUS被引频次: 16

ESI高被引论文在榜: 0 展开所有

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