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作者:

Liu, Cheng-Yan (Liu, Cheng-Yan.) | Liu, Jann-Yenq (Liu, Jann-Yenq.) | Chen, Yuh-Ing (Chen, Yuh-Ing.) | Qin, Fei (Qin, Fei.) (学者:秦飞) | Chen, Wei-Sheng (Chen, Wei-Sheng.) | Xia, Ya-Qin (Xia, Ya-Qin.) | Bai, Zhi-Qiang (Bai, Zhi-Qiang.)

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Scopus SCIE

摘要:

To verify the pre-earthquake ionospheric anomaly (PEIA), statistical analyses are implemented on the relationship between the total electron content (TEC) of global ionosphere map (GIM) and 62 M >= 6.0 earthquakes in China during 1998 - 2015. A median-based method together with z test is employed to determine the criteria and/or characteristics of TEC anomalies related to earthquakes. It is found that the GIM TEC significantly decreases at 18:00 - 22:00 UT (universal time, post-midnight to pre-dawn) 4 - 5 days before 37 6.0 <= M < 6.5 earthquakes, at 01:00 - 04:00 UT (morning) 3 - 6 days before 18 6.5 <= M < 7.0 earthquakes, and 04:00 - 10:00 UT (pre-noon to afternoon) 3 - 5 days; but increases 08: 00 - 12: 00 UT (late afternoon to early evening), 18 - 20 days before 7 M >= 7.0 earthquakes. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve is used to compare the TEC anomaly-based method with some competitive alternatives for predicting the earthquakes under study. We found, based on possible TEC anomalies, that the observed PEIAs are significantly earthquake-related. Moreover, the results of regression analyses show that the PEIA strength is associated with the magnitude of earthquakes.

关键词:

Logistic regression Pre-earthquake ionospheric anomaly ROC curve Total electron content z test

作者机构:

  • [ 1 ] [Liu, Cheng-Yan]Beijing Univ Technol, Inst Earthquake Predict, Beijing, Peoples R China
  • [ 2 ] [Qin, Fei]Beijing Univ Technol, Inst Earthquake Predict, Beijing, Peoples R China
  • [ 3 ] [Chen, Wei-Sheng]Beijing Univ Technol, Inst Earthquake Predict, Beijing, Peoples R China
  • [ 4 ] [Xia, Ya-Qin]Beijing Univ Technol, Inst Earthquake Predict, Beijing, Peoples R China
  • [ 5 ] [Bai, Zhi-Qiang]Beijing Univ Technol, Inst Earthquake Predict, Beijing, Peoples R China
  • [ 6 ] [Liu, Jann-Yenq]Natl Cent Univ, Grad Inst Space Sci, Taoyuan, Taiwan
  • [ 7 ] [Chen, Yuh-Ing]Natl Cent Univ, Grad Inst Stat, Taoyuan, Taiwan

通讯作者信息:

  • [Liu, Jann-Yenq]Natl Cent Univ, Grad Inst Space Sci, Taoyuan, Taiwan

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来源 :

TERRESTRIAL ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC SCIENCES

ISSN: 1017-0839

年份: 2018

期: 5

卷: 29

页码: 485-498

0 . 8 0 0

JCR@2022

ESI学科: GEOSCIENCES;

ESI高被引阀值:65

JCR分区:4

被引次数:

WoS核心集被引频次: 10

SCOPUS被引频次: 13

ESI高被引论文在榜: 0 展开所有

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