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[期刊论文]

Research on seismic risk and traffic capacity of bridges based on Bayesian network

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作者:

Wu, F. (Wu, F..) | Wang, W. (Wang, W..) (学者:王伟) | Liu, X.-R. (Liu, X.-R..)

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Scopus

摘要:

According to the bridge damage information, identifications are random and the Bayesian network analysis expresses information potential probability relationship as flexible. Based on Bayesian network and seismic theory, the method of bridge seismic hazard grade identification is established. Based on the complete investigation data of the Wenchuan earthquake bridges, eight representative factors such as PGA etc. are selected. The influence of bridge seismic vulnerability classification variables and discrete quantization value, parameters learning using the maximum likelihood (MLE) method is to get the nodes probability table. The grade of bridge seismic is identified by using BN reverse reasoning technology and it has good prediction accuracy of 95.5% and can identify the reasons for damaging. Through the model validation of the Baihua Bridge and 10 typical bridges, the classification imbalance of the sample data had impacts on the model prediction. There is a deviation between the damage states of the bridge with the survey data, the results verify the feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed method. The traffic capacity of the bridge after the earthquake the traffic flow changes and the transit time in the Lishui Bay Bridge are evaluated. The results show that the evaluation results provide some reference values for post-earthquake disaster reduction.

关键词:

Bayesian network; Bridge; Earthquake seismic; Impact factor; Risk analysis; Traffic capacity.

作者机构:

  • [ 1 ] [Wu, F.]Institute of Earthquake Resistance and Disaster Reduction, Beijing University of Technology, Beijing, 100124, China
  • [ 2 ] [Wang, W.]Institute of Earthquake Resistance and Disaster Reduction, Beijing University of Technology, Beijing, 100124, China
  • [ 3 ] [Wang, W.]College of Architecture and Engineering, Beijing University of Technology, Beijing, 100124, China
  • [ 4 ] [Liu, X.-R.]Beijing University of Civil Engineering and Architecture, Beijing, 100044, China

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来源 :

Disaster Advances

ISSN: 0974-262X

年份: 2018

期: 1

卷: 11

页码: 33-44

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