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作者:

Zhao, Yan-Gang (Zhao, Yan-Gang.) | Li, Pei-Pei (Li, Pei-Pei.) | Lu, Zhao-Hui (Lu, Zhao-Hui.)

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EI Scopus SCIE

摘要:

We investigate the evaluation of structural reliability under imperfect knowledge about the probability distributions of random variables, with emphasis on the uncertainties of the distribution parameters. When these uncertainties are considered, the failure probability becomes a random variable that is referred to as the conditional failure probability. For the sake of transparency in communicating risk, it is necessary to determine not only the mean but also the quantile of the conditional failure probability. A novel method is proposed for estimating the quantile of the conditional failure probability by using the probability distribution of the corresponding conditional reliability index, in which a point-estimate method based on bivariate dimension-reduction integration is first suggested to compute the first three moments (i.e., mean, standard deviation and skewness) of the conditional reliability index. The probability distribution of the conditional reliability index is then approximated by a three-parameter square normal distribution. Numerical studies show that the computational efficiency of the proposed method was well above that of Monte Carlo simulations without loss of accuracy, and also show that neglecting parameter uncertainties will lead to the structural reliability being overestimated. The developed methodology provides a complete picture of structural reliability evaluation under imperfect knowledge about probability distributions. (C) 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

关键词:

Conditional failure probability Conditional reliability index Parameter uncertainties Point-estimate method Structural reliability

作者机构:

  • [ 1 ] [Zhao, Yan-Gang]Kanagawa Univ, Dept Architecture, Kanagawa Ku, 3-27-1 Rokkakubashi, Yokohama, Kanagawa 2218686, Japan
  • [ 2 ] [Li, Pei-Pei]Cent S Univ, Sch Civil Engn, 22 Shaoshannan Rd, Changsha 410075, Hunan, Peoples R China
  • [ 3 ] [Lu, Zhao-Hui]Cent S Univ, Sch Civil Engn, 22 Shaoshannan Rd, Changsha 410075, Hunan, Peoples R China
  • [ 4 ] [Lu, Zhao-Hui]Beijing Univ Technol, Key Lab Urban Secur & Disaster Engn, Minist Educ, Beijing 100124, Peoples R China

通讯作者信息:

  • [Lu, Zhao-Hui]Cent S Univ, Sch Civil Engn, 22 Shaoshannan Rd, Changsha 410075, Hunan, Peoples R China;;[Lu, Zhao-Hui]Beijing Univ Technol, Key Lab Urban Secur & Disaster Engn, Minist Educ, Beijing 100124, Peoples R China

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来源 :

RELIABILITY ENGINEERING & SYSTEM SAFETY

ISSN: 0951-8320

年份: 2018

卷: 175

页码: 160-170

8 . 1 0 0

JCR@2022

ESI学科: ENGINEERING;

ESI高被引阀值:76

JCR分区:1

被引次数:

WoS核心集被引频次: 10

SCOPUS被引频次: 13

ESI高被引论文在榜: 0 展开所有

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