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作者:

Wang, Minggang (Wang, Minggang.) | Zhao, Longfeng (Zhao, Longfeng.) | Du, Ruijin (Du, Ruijin.) | Wang, Chao (Wang, Chao.) (学者:王超) | Chen, Lin (Chen, Lin.) | Tian, Lixin (Tian, Lixin.) | Stanley, Eugene (Stanley, Eugene.)

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SSCI EI Scopus SCIE

摘要:

Forecasting the price of crude oil is a challenging task. To improve this forecasting, this paper proposes a novel hybrid method that uses an integrated data fluctuation network (DFN) and several artificial intelligence (AI) algorithms, named DIN-AI model. In the proposed DFN-AI model, a complex network time series analysis technique is performed as a preprocessor for the original data to extract the fluctuation features and reconstruct the original data, and then an artificial intelligence tool, e.g., BPNN, RBFNN or ELM, is employed to model the reconstructed data and predict the future data. To verify these results we examine the daily, weekly, and monthly price data from the crude oil trading hub in Cushing, Oklahoma. Empirical results demonstrate that the proposed DIN-AI models (i.e., DFN-BP, DEN-RBF, and DFN-ELM) perform significantly better than their corresponding single AI models in both the direction and level of prediction. This confirms the effectiveness of our proposed modeling of the nonlinear patterns hidden in crude oil prices. In addition, our proposed DEN-AI methods are robust and reliable and are unaffected by random sample selection, sample frequency, or breaks in sample structure.

关键词:

Artificial intelligence algorithms Complex network Crude oil price prediction

作者机构:

  • [ 1 ] [Wang, Minggang]Nanjing Normal Univ, Sch Math Sci, Nanjing 210042, Jiangsu, Peoples R China
  • [ 2 ] [Tian, Lixin]Nanjing Normal Univ, Sch Math Sci, Nanjing 210042, Jiangsu, Peoples R China
  • [ 3 ] [Wang, Minggang]Nanjing Normal Univ, Taizhou Coll, Dept Math, Taizhou 225300, Jiangsu, Peoples R China
  • [ 4 ] [Wang, Minggang]Boston Univ, Ctr Polymer Studies, Boston, MA 02215 USA
  • [ 5 ] [Zhao, Longfeng]Boston Univ, Ctr Polymer Studies, Boston, MA 02215 USA
  • [ 6 ] [Du, Ruijin]Boston Univ, Ctr Polymer Studies, Boston, MA 02215 USA
  • [ 7 ] [Wang, Chao]Boston Univ, Ctr Polymer Studies, Boston, MA 02215 USA
  • [ 8 ] [Chen, Lin]Boston Univ, Ctr Polymer Studies, Boston, MA 02215 USA
  • [ 9 ] [Stanley, Eugene]Boston Univ, Ctr Polymer Studies, Boston, MA 02215 USA
  • [ 10 ] [Wang, Minggang]Boston Univ, Dept Phys, Boston, MA 02215 USA
  • [ 11 ] [Zhao, Longfeng]Boston Univ, Dept Phys, Boston, MA 02215 USA
  • [ 12 ] [Du, Ruijin]Boston Univ, Dept Phys, Boston, MA 02215 USA
  • [ 13 ] [Wang, Chao]Boston Univ, Dept Phys, Boston, MA 02215 USA
  • [ 14 ] [Chen, Lin]Boston Univ, Dept Phys, Boston, MA 02215 USA
  • [ 15 ] [Stanley, Eugene]Boston Univ, Dept Phys, Boston, MA 02215 USA
  • [ 16 ] [Du, Ruijin]Jiangsu Univ, Energy Dev & Environm Protect Strategy Res Ctr, Zhenjiang 212013, Jiangsu, Peoples R China
  • [ 17 ] [Tian, Lixin]Jiangsu Univ, Energy Dev & Environm Protect Strategy Res Ctr, Zhenjiang 212013, Jiangsu, Peoples R China
  • [ 18 ] [Wang, Chao]Beijing Univ Technol, Coll Econ & Management, Beijing 100124, Peoples R China
  • [ 19 ] [Chen, Lin]Northwestern Polytech Univ, Sch Management, Xian 710072, Shanxi, Peoples R China

通讯作者信息:

  • [Tian, Lixin]Nanjing Normal Univ, Sch Math Sci, Nanjing 210042, Jiangsu, Peoples R China

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来源 :

APPLIED ENERGY

ISSN: 0306-2619

年份: 2018

卷: 220

页码: 480-495

1 1 . 2 0 0

JCR@2022

ESI学科: ENGINEERING;

ESI高被引阀值:76

JCR分区:1

被引次数:

WoS核心集被引频次: 94

SCOPUS被引频次:

ESI高被引论文在榜: 0 展开所有

万方被引频次:

中文被引频次:

近30日浏览量: 1

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