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作者:

Ji, Ling (Ji, Ling.) (学者:嵇灵) | Huang, Guo-He (Huang, Guo-He.) | Xie, Yu-Lei (Xie, Yu-Lei.) | Niu, Dong-Xiao (Niu, Dong-Xiao.) | Song, Yi-Hang (Song, Yi-Hang.)

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EI Scopus SCIE

摘要:

In this paper, a risk explicit interval two-stage programming (REITSP) model was proposed for supporting the regional electricity generation expansion with renewable portfolio standard (RPS) constraint. It could effectively tackle multiple uncertainties expressed as interval numbers. But unlike the traditional interval two-stage programming model, the proposed REITSP model could provide an explicit trade-off information between system cost and risk for decision makers with different risk preferences. It could minimize the total system cost, as well as the decision risk according to the aspiration risk level of decision maker. The developed REITSP model was applied to the case study in Guangdong Province, China for its long-term electricity system planning. Crisp solutions under different aspiration risk levels for varying RPS targets were obtained and analyzed. The results showed that according to the current available renewable energy and affordable construction speed, the maximum RPS target for Guangzhou Province during 2016-2025 should be 17%. Higher RPS level would promote the renewable energy generation, especially solar power; meanwhile, it would reduce the CO2 emission and the imported electricity, but with greater investment cost. The obtained results and trade-off information would be valuable for the optimal long-term electricity system expansion planning when facing future uncertain situation. (C) 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

关键词:

Interval two-stage programming Generation expansion planning Risk explicit Renewable portfolio standards Risk preference

作者机构:

  • [ 1 ] [Ji, Ling]Beijing Univ Technol, Coll Econ & Management, Res Base Beijing Modern Mfg Dev, Beijing 100124, Peoples R China
  • [ 2 ] [Huang, Guo-He]Univ Regina, Environm Syst Engn Program, Fac Engn, Regina, SK S4S 0A2, Canada
  • [ 3 ] [Xie, Yu-Lei]Univ Sci & Technol, Sch Mech Engn, Beijing 100083, Peoples R China
  • [ 4 ] [Niu, Dong-Xiao]North China Elect Power Univ, Sch Econ & Management, Beijing 102206, Peoples R China
  • [ 5 ] [Song, Yi-Hang]CSG, Elect Power Res Inst, Guangzhou 510080, Guangdong, Peoples R China

通讯作者信息:

  • 嵇灵

    [Ji, Ling]Beijing Univ Technol, Sch Econ & Management, 100 Ping Le Yuan, Beijing 100124, Peoples R China

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来源 :

ENERGY

ISSN: 0360-5442

年份: 2017

卷: 131

页码: 125-136

9 . 0 0 0

JCR@2022

ESI学科: ENGINEERING;

ESI高被引阀值:165

中科院分区:1

被引次数:

WoS核心集被引频次: 19

SCOPUS被引频次: 28

ESI高被引论文在榜: 0 展开所有

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中文被引频次:

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