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作者:

Wang, Bin (Wang, Bin.) | Zhang, Xinxin (Zhang, Xinxin.) | Li, Xin (Li, Xin.) | Jiang, ZeYi (Jiang, ZeYi.) | Xie, Yulei (Xie, Yulei.)

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摘要:

An inexact two-stage stochastic risk-aversion model was developed in this study for supporting regional energy system planning and management. It can tackle uncertainties described in terms of probability distributions and permits the in-depth analysis of various policy scenarios when the promised policy targets are violated. Moreover, it can help local decision-makers evaluate trade-offs between energy system economy and stability associated with different robust criteria (risk-aversion levels). An actual case study in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (BTH) region, China, was provided for demonstrating the applicability of the developed model. The results indicated that electricity generated by coal-burning (coal-fired power and coal-fired cogeneration) and gas-fired heating would be the main power forms for power and heat supply to get the maximum security. Furthermore, some policy implications can be concluded as follows: (a) more attention should be focused on increasing the local power generation capacity in the BTH region rather than importing electricity from other regions; (b) the introduction of risk aversion into the optimization model is conducive to the development of solar power, biomass power, and gas-fired cogeneration; and (c) renewable energy (e.g., biomass energy and geothermal energy) development in the BTH region still has a long way to go, because it is constrained by resource endowment and geographical location. Generally, the proposed model not only can help decision-makers identify the desired energy system management policies under risk considerations, but also could be viewed as a prime example for energy system planning and management at different regional levels (e.g., city, province, and multiprovince) and used as a reference for energy structure adjustment in other metropolitan groups such as the Yangtze River Delta and Pearl River Delta urban agglomerations. Published by AIP Publishing.

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作者机构:

  • [ 1 ] [Wang, Bin]Univ Sci & Technol Beijing, Sch Energy & Environm Engn, Beijing 100083, Peoples R China
  • [ 2 ] [Zhang, Xinxin]Univ Sci & Technol Beijing, Sch Energy & Environm Engn, Beijing 100083, Peoples R China
  • [ 3 ] [Jiang, ZeYi]Univ Sci & Technol Beijing, Sch Energy & Environm Engn, Beijing 100083, Peoples R China
  • [ 4 ] [Xie, Yulei]Univ Sci & Technol Beijing, Sch Energy & Environm Engn, Beijing 100083, Peoples R China
  • [ 5 ] [Li, Xin]Beijing Univ Technol, Beijing 100124, Peoples R China
  • [ 6 ] [Li, Xin]Chinese Acad Environm Planning, Beijing 100012, Peoples R China

通讯作者信息:

  • [Zhang, Xinxin]Univ Sci & Technol Beijing, Sch Energy & Environm Engn, Beijing 100083, Peoples R China

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来源 :

JOURNAL OF RENEWABLE AND SUSTAINABLE ENERGY

ISSN: 1941-7012

年份: 2017

期: 4

卷: 9

2 . 5 0 0

JCR@2022

ESI学科: ENGINEERING;

ESI高被引阀值:92

中科院分区:4

被引次数:

WoS核心集被引频次: 2

SCOPUS被引频次: 3

ESI高被引论文在榜: 0 展开所有

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中文被引频次:

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