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学者姓名：唐中君
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摘要 ：
提出并验证考虑消费动机和动态竞争的电影日需求预测模型.考虑非粉丝及粉丝型的消费动机,构建电影消费两阶段过程模型;融合该模型和Bass模型,考虑竞争导致市场潜量的动态性,考虑映前被关注度、口碑、节假日对票房的影响,提出电影日需求预测模型.利用2016 ～2017年上映的电影数据验证该模型,并与Bass模型对比分析.结果 显示,该模型预测效果优于Bass模型.因考虑竞争导致的动态市场潜量,考虑粉丝型消费者由续集效应及改编效应导致的动态市场潜量提升,该模型能显著提高预测准确度.利用映前被关注度和电影口碑数据,该模型能实现映前及上映早期的预测.该模型可推广至存在消费动机不同、市场动态竞争的其它短生命周期体验品的需求预测,是对Bass模型的改进.
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| GB/T 7714 | 唐中君 , 周亚丽 . 考虑消费动机和动态竞争的电影日需求预测模型 [J]. | 运筹与管理 , 2021 , 30 (6) : 172-180 . |
| MLA | 唐中君 等. "考虑消费动机和动态竞争的电影日需求预测模型" . | 运筹与管理 30 . 6 (2021) : 172-180 . |
| APA | 唐中君 , 周亚丽 . 考虑消费动机和动态竞争的电影日需求预测模型 . | 运筹与管理 , 2021 , 30 (6) , 172-180 . |
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摘要 ：
基于信息收集的降低需求可变性两级供应链博弈研究
关键词 ：
STACKELBERG博弈 STACKELBERG博弈 库存决策 库存决策 需求可变性 需求可变性 信息收集 信息收集 决策科学 决策科学
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| GB/T 7714 | 禹海波 , 李欣 , 李健 et al. 基于信息收集的降低需求可变性两级供应链博弈研究 [J]. | 禹海波 , 2021 , 35 (3) : 229-240 . |
| MLA | 禹海波 et al. "基于信息收集的降低需求可变性两级供应链博弈研究" . | 禹海波 35 . 3 (2021) : 229-240 . |
| APA | 禹海波 , 李欣 , 李健 , 李泉林 , 唐中君 , 管理工程学报 . 基于信息收集的降低需求可变性两级供应链博弈研究 . | 禹海波 , 2021 , 35 (3) , 229-240 . |
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摘要 ：
新兴产业的发展伴随着不确定性和复杂性,风险贯穿于新兴产业的成长史.针对新兴产业发展过程中无标准参照的风险特性,构建了一个基于逼近理想标准参照值的"垂面"距离风险评估模型;考虑新兴产业成长及风险变化的速度"惯性",提出了一种基于变化速度特征的风险预警模型.以我国航天器制造业2006-2014年期间的数据为样本,对新兴产业的风险评估与预警进行了实证分析,结果表明:此期间,我国航天器制造业的四类风险演变状态呈现多阶段的具有差异性的特点,综合风险演化展现出无序混乱态势.此外,在航天器制造产业的未来发展进程中,其面临的四类风险中成长性风险最为突出,是预警的重点;技术风险和环境风险较为弱化,但仍需要适当监控;市场风险呈现无警信号,表明其市场前景依然乐观.
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| GB/T 7714 | 杨早立 , 綦萌 , 黄鲁成 et al. "距离"与"速度"视角下的新兴产业风险评估及其预警——以航天器制造产业为例 [J]. | 管理评论 , 2021 , 33 (7) : 43-53 . |
| MLA | 杨早立 et al. ""距离"与"速度"视角下的新兴产业风险评估及其预警——以航天器制造产业为例" . | 管理评论 33 . 7 (2021) : 43-53 . |
| APA | 杨早立 , 綦萌 , 黄鲁成 , 唐中君 . "距离"与"速度"视角下的新兴产业风险评估及其预警——以航天器制造产业为例 . | 管理评论 , 2021 , 33 (7) , 43-53 . |
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摘要 ：
基于存在潜伏期的仓室模型,依据消费者具有选择权和判断力的特性,首先提出了考虑人群非接触情形下的消费者涌现行为数理模型,并综合考虑消费者的冲动消费、人群间的交互行为等多种属性以刻画不同群体间的转移概率。其次,构建了数理模型的演化动力学方程,通过实例验证了数理模型的有效性。最后,运用该模型论证得到了短生命周期体验品的消费者涌现行为机理。
关键词 ：
仓室模型 仓室模型 消费者行为 消费者行为 涌现机理 涌现机理 涌现行为 涌现行为 短生命周期体验品 短生命周期体验品
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| GB/T 7714 | 唐中君 , 朱慧珂 . 短生命周期体验品的消费者涌现行为演化机理 [J]. | 工业工程与管理 , 2021 , 26 (05) : 59-67 . |
| MLA | 唐中君 et al. "短生命周期体验品的消费者涌现行为演化机理" . | 工业工程与管理 26 . 05 (2021) : 59-67 . |
| APA | 唐中君 , 朱慧珂 . 短生命周期体验品的消费者涌现行为演化机理 . | 工业工程与管理 , 2021 , 26 (05) , 59-67 . |
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摘要 ：
为获得改进的分类算法BP_Adaboost,利用思维进化算法(MEA)和列文伯格-马夸尔特算法(LM)结合改进的BP神经网络作为弱分类器,由改进的弱分类器集成得到MEA-LM-BP_Adaboost算法.提出了基于MEA-LM-BP_Adaboost算法的首轮融资时总票房分类预测方法,该方法包括变量选取及操作化处理、网络参数优化、MEA改进弱分类器、LM算法改进弱分类器、MEA-LM-BP_Adaboost算法的流程设计、待预测电影验证6个部分.选用2013～2018年的245部国产电影作为样本验证该预测方法和模型,测试集分类准确率可达73.3％.最后在模型准确率、稳定性、K折交叉验证3方面进行模型整体性能比较,结果表明本文提出的模型整体性能最好.
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| GB/T 7714 | 唐中君 , 王美月 , 周欣浩 et al. BP_Adaboost算法的改进及在首轮融资时总票房分类预测中的应用 [J]. | 科技促进发展 , 2021 , 17 (6) : 1158-1168 . |
| MLA | 唐中君 et al. "BP_Adaboost算法的改进及在首轮融资时总票房分类预测中的应用" . | 科技促进发展 17 . 6 (2021) : 1158-1168 . |
| APA | 唐中君 , 王美月 , 周欣浩 , 杨崇耀 . BP_Adaboost算法的改进及在首轮融资时总票房分类预测中的应用 . | 科技促进发展 , 2021 , 17 (6) , 1158-1168 . |
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摘要 ：
促销和降低需求可变性是企业提高供应链绩效的重要途径.本文针对需求依赖促销努力水平和可变性水平的供应链决策问题,基于概率论中的均值保持变换和均值CVaR准则,研究需求可变性降低和风险偏好对供应链系统的影响.首先,建立供应链集中系统,证明促销努力和降低需求可变性能够增加集中系统的利润.其次,证明降低需求可变性能够增加促销努力,并且使低利润产品的订货量增加而高利润产品的订货量减少.然后,建立零售商风险偏好下的供应链分散系统,证明收益共享与数量折扣组合契约能够协调需求依赖促销努力和可变性水平的供应链.降低需求可变性能增加零售商的最优期望利润,但制造商的最优期望利润是否增加与零售商的风险偏好有关.最后,用数值例子验证了获得的研究结果.
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| GB/T 7714 | 禹海波 , 付建 , 李健 et al. 需求可变性和风险偏好对需求依赖促销努力供应链的影响 [J]. | 管理工程学报 , 2021 , 35 (4) : 202-215 . |
| MLA | 禹海波 et al. "需求可变性和风险偏好对需求依赖促销努力供应链的影响" . | 管理工程学报 35 . 4 (2021) : 202-215 . |
| APA | 禹海波 , 付建 , 李健 , 李泉林 , 唐中君 . 需求可变性和风险偏好对需求依赖促销努力供应链的影响 . | 管理工程学报 , 2021 , 35 (4) , 202-215 . |
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摘要 ：
Purpose Because of short life cycle and fluctuating greatly in total sales volumes (TSV), it is difficult to accumulate enough sales data and mine an attribute set reflecting the common needs of all consumers for a kind of experiential product with short life cycle (EPSLC). Methods for predicting TSV of long-life-cycle products may not be suitable for EPSLC. Furthermore, point prediction cannot obtain satisfactory prediction results because information available before production is inadequate. Thus, this paper aims at proposing and verifying a novel interval prediction method (IPM). Design/methodology/approach Because interval prediction may satisfy requirements of preproduction investment decision-making, interval prediction was adopted, and then the prediction difficult was converted into a classification problem. The classification was designed by comparing similarities in attribute relationship patterns between a new EPSLC and existing product groups. The product introduction may be written or obtained before production and thus was designed as primary source information. IPM was verified by using data of crime movies released in China from 2013 to 2017. Findings The IPM is valid, which uses product introduction as input, classifies existing products into three groups with different TSV intervals, mines attribute relationship patterns using content and association analyses and compares similarities in attribute relationship patterns - to predict TSV interval of a new EPSLC before production. Originality/value Different from other studies, the IPM uses product introduction to mine attribute relationship patterns and compares similarities in attribute relationship patterns to predict the interval values. It has a strong applicability in data content and structure and may realize rolling prediction.
关键词 ：
Attribute relationship pattern Attribute relationship pattern Code category system Code category system Experiential product with short life cycle Experiential product with short life cycle Interval prediction Interval prediction Pattern network graph Pattern network graph Sales prediction Sales prediction
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| GB/T 7714 | Tang, Zhongjun , Wang, Tingting , Cui, Junfu et al. Predicting total sales volume interval of an experiential product with short life cycle before production: similarity comparison in attribute relationship patterns [J]. | MANAGEMENT DECISION , 2021 , 59 (10) : 2528-2548 . |
| MLA | Tang, Zhongjun et al. "Predicting total sales volume interval of an experiential product with short life cycle before production: similarity comparison in attribute relationship patterns" . | MANAGEMENT DECISION 59 . 10 (2021) : 2528-2548 . |
| APA | Tang, Zhongjun , Wang, Tingting , Cui, Junfu , Han, Zhongya , He, Bo . Predicting total sales volume interval of an experiential product with short life cycle before production: similarity comparison in attribute relationship patterns . | MANAGEMENT DECISION , 2021 , 59 (10) , 2528-2548 . |
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摘要 ：
With the enhancement of consumer's environmental awareness, environmental knowledge and health consciousness attitude, environment friendly product and services have attracted much attention. The main objective of this study was to analyze the determinants of consumer's adoption intention to 5G services. Value adaptation Model (VAM) model was extended to develop a correlational model by adding three factors: environmental awareness, environmental knowledge, and health consciousness attitude to pay for 5G services. The model was tested based on online survey data from 423 respondents in China applying structural equation modelling (SEM) approach. The final results illustrate the significant relationship between environmental awareness, knowledge and health-consciousness attitude, which further influences consumer's intentions to purchase 5G. In addition, compared with previous models, this model can improve the explained variance. The significance of the study for managers and researchers and some limitations are also discussed. © 2021 Elsevier Ltd
关键词 ：
Health Health Surveys Surveys
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| GB/T 7714 | Shah, Sayed Kifayat , Zhongjun, Tang , Sattar, Abdul et al. Consumer's intention to purchase 5G: Do environmental awareness, environmental knowledge and health consciousness attitude matter? [J]. | Technology in Society , 2021 , 65 . |
| MLA | Shah, Sayed Kifayat et al. "Consumer's intention to purchase 5G: Do environmental awareness, environmental knowledge and health consciousness attitude matter?" . | Technology in Society 65 (2021) . |
| APA | Shah, Sayed Kifayat , Zhongjun, Tang , Sattar, Abdul , XinHao, Zhou . Consumer's intention to purchase 5G: Do environmental awareness, environmental knowledge and health consciousness attitude matter? . | Technology in Society , 2021 , 65 . |
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摘要 ：
The Existent theories of information and communication technology (ICT) expose behavioral intention as the key predictor in technology usage behavior. Still, the evidence divulges only a low influence on this relationship. This disparity is named the 'intention-behavior gap', and we believe that it requires more theoretical analysis to better understand this gap. This research aims to find novel factors to overcome these constraints and perceive the mechanism of how intentions lead to actual behavior. In the technology user's context, this study has acknowledged product market creation ability as an encouraging factor to overcome such limitations. Data was collected from Chinese consumers (n = 327) in Beijing and was examined employing the structural equation modelling (SEM) approach. The outcomes confirm that intentions have a positive impact on the usage behavior of 5G technology. The outcomes demonstrate that the market creation ability of the 5G technology products moderate and encourage the intentions and usage behavior relationship. Policy-makers and managers who aim to make positive changes in the behavior of technology users are motivated to consider the inferences of this study.
关键词 ：
5G technology 5G technology Intention-behavior gap Intention-behavior gap Market creation Market creation Structural equation modelling (SEM) technique Structural equation modelling (SEM) technique
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| GB/T 7714 | Shah, Sayed Kifayat , Tang Zhongjun . Elaborating on the consumer's intention-behavior gap regarding 5G technology: The moderating role of the product market-creation ability [J]. | TECHNOLOGY IN SOCIETY , 2021 , 66 . |
| MLA | Shah, Sayed Kifayat et al. "Elaborating on the consumer's intention-behavior gap regarding 5G technology: The moderating role of the product market-creation ability" . | TECHNOLOGY IN SOCIETY 66 (2021) . |
| APA | Shah, Sayed Kifayat , Tang Zhongjun . Elaborating on the consumer's intention-behavior gap regarding 5G technology: The moderating role of the product market-creation ability . | TECHNOLOGY IN SOCIETY , 2021 , 66 . |
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摘要 ：
Purpose The purpose of this paper is to explore how the number and quality of games that publishers have released, popularity of game genre, age rating and package size are configured to determine the mobile game takeoff in a short time. Design/methodology/approach Based on the signaling theory, the authors present a conceptual model. Using actual data about 170 mobile games at their initial stage in the Apple App store, the authors test the conceptual model by applying fuzzy qualitative comparative analysis (fsQCA). Findings The findings identify four solutions that explain Mobile game takeoff in a short time. The authors highlight the role of the number and quality of games released by publishers, as well as that of popular game genres, which are always core factors when present. Originality/value This paper complements the previous research on the diffusion of mobile games by exploring which information combinations can lead to mobile games takeoff in a short time from the perspective of configuration. FsQCA serves as a better tool for explaining the complex relationships among variables than a regression analysis approach does. The authors extend existing knowledge on how the number and quality of games that publishers have released, popularity of game genre, age rating and package size combine to lead to takeoff of mobile games in a short time.
关键词 ：
FsQCA FsQCA Information configuration Information configuration Mobile game Mobile game Signaling theory Signaling theory Takeoff Takeoff
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| GB/T 7714 | Tang, Zhongjun , He, Bo . Explaining mobile game takeoff through information configuration [J]. | INDUSTRIAL MANAGEMENT & DATA SYSTEMS , 2021 . |
| MLA | Tang, Zhongjun et al. "Explaining mobile game takeoff through information configuration" . | INDUSTRIAL MANAGEMENT & DATA SYSTEMS (2021) . |
| APA | Tang, Zhongjun , He, Bo . Explaining mobile game takeoff through information configuration . | INDUSTRIAL MANAGEMENT & DATA SYSTEMS , 2021 . |
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